Why "The Market" Is Lying to You Right Now

Should I buy in South Florida now or wait for rates to drop?

There is no single South Florida market, so the answer depends on the county and the property type you are looking at. In Miami-Dade, single-family houses sit near 4.8 months of supply, which favors sellers, while condos sit near 12 months, which favors buyers. Sales are climbing while inventory tightens and prices rise, so waiting for a lower rate often costs more in price and lost equity than it saves.

Palm Beach County just closed about 2,250 home sales in a single month, up 15 percent from a year ago. Million-dollar-plus sales climbed 36 percent. That is not a market falling apart. So the question that actually matters is this: if demand keeps climbing while people wait for a perfect signal, what exactly are they waiting for?

Did sales wait for rates to drop first?

No. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national 30-year fixed average eased for a second week in a row, to 6.65 percent for the week ending August 20th. That is a small move.

Here is what matters. Sales did not wait for that number to budge. Demand was already moving. Buyers across South Florida are transacting right now, at these rates. So the story that everyone is frozen, waiting for cheaper money, does not match what the closings say.

People keep telling themselves they will buy when rates come down. But look at the actual behavior. The closings tell a different story than the fear does.

What does months of supply mean?

This is the number that matters most, and hardly anyone talks about it.

Months of supply is how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no new listings came on the market. Under about six months, sellers have the edge. Over six months, buyers do. It is a simple way to read who has leverage in a given segment.

Now watch how it splits inside a single county. In Miami-Dade, single-family houses sit at about 4.8 months of supply. Condos sit at roughly 12 months. Same county, two completely different negotiations. Houses lean seller. Condos lean buyer.

Why are Miami-Dade condos and houses telling opposite stories?

That divergence shows up in real life. A Miami-Dade condo is now taking around 86 days to go under contract, versus 65 a year ago. Houses are moving faster.

So if you walk into a condo with the same aggressive mindset you would use on a hot single-family listing, you are misreading the room. Condo buyers may have real negotiating leverage right now.

But condos come with their own homework. The association's finances, the building's insurance, and the reserves all matter. That is a separate underwriting question that can affect your loan no matter how strong your credit is. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau covers the added review that goes into financing a unit in a shared association. Ask those questions before you fall in love with the unit.

Is this divergence only happening in Miami?

No. It runs across the region, county by county.

• Palm Beach County: 15 percent more sales overall, with condo sales specifically up over 18 percent.
• Martin County: 288 sales, up 18.5 percent, with active listings down roughly 20 percent from last year. That is tightening. Fewer homes for sale, more of them selling.
• St. Lucie County: Sales up too, but single-family homes are taking about 63 days to go under contract, versus 52 a year ago. Inventory is tighter, yet homes sit a little longer.

That St. Lucie signal is easy to miss. Tighter supply does not mean a home sells itself. Condition and price still matter. A tight market rewards well-priced, move-in-ready homes and still punishes overpriced or neglected ones.

What is the real cost of waiting?

Waiting feels safe. It feels careful. But waiting is not a neutral choice. It has a cost, and the cost is quiet.

Think about what happens while you wait:

• In Martin County, listings dropped 20 percent in a year. That is fewer options every month you sit still.
• In Palm Beach, million-dollar sales climbed 36 percent, which means the higher end is competing harder, not backing off.
• In St. Lucie, the single-family median is up 2.6 percent and the condo median is up over 13 percent.

Those are prices moving up while someone tells themselves they will decide next quarter. The rate might tick down a fraction. Meanwhile the price and the equity you would have started building both moved the other way. Building equity over time is one of the ways homeownership supports household wealth, a point the Federal Reserve documents in its Survey of Consumer Finances.

What question should you actually be asking?

The real question is not "is the market good or bad." That question is too big to answer, because there is no single market.

The useful question is much smaller. What are the numbers for the specific home, in the specific county, in the specific building you are actually looking at? Houses or condos, seller-leaning or buyer-leaning, the math changes street by street.

As an independent broker, I am not stuck selling one lender's product. I shop it. And I will walk you through your real numbers and tell you plainly whether waiting helps you or quietly costs you. No pressure, no hype, just the math for your situation.

If you are trying to make a move in Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, or Miami-Dade this year, book a call and let's discuss your personal situation and explore your next best move.

These numbers change every month, so check the segment you care about before you decide anything.